Who is the favorite to win the NBA championship? Most impactful moment during the season's first half: DeRozan hits back-to-back game-winners on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1100 While many teams likely still think they're in contention, eight teams are at +1600 or better to . Our How to Bet on the NBA page has everything you need to know so you can feel comfortable making wagers on pro basketball. While the Warriors have improved their scoring attack (which ranked an uncharacteristic-for-the-dynasty 17th during the regular season) in the playoffs and surpassed Boston offensively, the Celtics have the superior postseason numbers in every other category despite playing a more difficult schedule. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. However, since that stat also captures the effect of having the better team which usually (but not always) correlates with a better record the true value of Finals home court is smaller. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Is that real, or will things start to backslide? NBA championship odds: Best bets to walk away with 2021 title among league's top teams . The Nuggets have the reigning two-time MVP and the best record in the West yet find themselves with the fourth-best odds. That would certainly be a boost to the team's fortunes as well. As of Feb. 26, the Lakers have a 40 percent chance of making the 2023 NBA Playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections . A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. In the likely event (to me, at least) that Mobleys projection ends up being too pessimistic, Clevelands odds will certainly improve. Khris Middleton is back, too, furthering the squads championship chances. Brook Lopez hasn't played another game this season, and the Bucks would spend all of the first half shuffling players in and out. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 7%. Playoff and title projections: But bettors may not mind the coaching shuffle. Will the Lakers miss the 2023 NBA Playoffs? If youre a first-time NBA bettor, dont sweat it. Playoff and title projections: Denver has four players averaging 15 or more points per game this season. RAPTOR foresees the Timberwolves leaping out of the play-in to grab the No. FiveThirtyEight's model has Boston's chances of winning the NBA Finals at a whopping 80 percent, nearly 36 percent better than the odds suggest. Sacramento has been on a slow rise throughout the season, with the Kings now available in the championship market at 100-to-1. Playoff and title projections: Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Hawks traded away Cam Reddish (as well as Solomon Hill and a 2025 second-rounder) in January for a protected 2022 first-round pick and Kevin Knox. The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. Eastern Conference. Boston currently has a greater than 99 percent chance . The duo's working relationship ended at the trade deadline when the Mavericks sent Porzingis and the two seasons remaining on his five-year, $158-million deal to the Wizards. As the NBA season whips past the trade deadline, the preseason betting favorite in the 2022-23 NBA championship odds has stayed strong. Philadelphia 76ers (+750 . Finally, we have to talk about the race for the bottom of the standings in both conferences, which is sure to be impacted by the Tank-O-Rama for Victor Wembanyama. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +340 The Mavs have hovered around the fringe-playoff territory for most of the year but have kicked it up a notch and are now sixth in the West. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Caesars title odds: +1100 Must-see game left on the schedule: Heat at Knicks, March 22 (7:30 p.m. Redistributing minutes from the likes of Jarrett Culver, Jalen Johnson and Vt Krej to Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu will do that. The New York Knicks are also moving up the table, though the numbers are still pretty long. Pivot point for the rest of the season: What happens with Irving's playing time? A healthy Nets squad with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Simmons comes to town for a showdown with Butler and Co. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The key for this veteran bunch is being able to stay healthy. FiveThirtyEight: Suns have a 56% chance to beat Hornets The site gives Charlotte a 44% shot at defeating Phoenix in the NBA game on Wednesday night. Below are the teams that have seen their odds change from just a week ago after the NBA Finals, most of which are minimal and not likely reflections of the draft. Those odds are in spite of the No. Even if you dont like or believe our default forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings (which, again, I dont necessarily blame you), the Celtics are also 68 percent favorites according to our classic Elo-based predictions. The KD And Kyrie Trades Stole The Show At A Wild NBA Trade Deadline, Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear. Web FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to finish 58-24 with title odds of 26. The issues for Philly arise when those two are off the floor, and Doc Rivers insistence on using bench-heavy lineups. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values. ET): Any chance to see Antetokounmpo and Embiid go head-to-head is worth watching, but this game could help decide the winner of this year's MVP award. 1. But the Wizards still have a shot at the play-in, despite losing Beal for the season. Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. 1. Playoff and title projections: The Bucks had been carried by the strength of Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday for most of the first half. 3-seeded Warriors owning homecourt advantage over the No. ET, TNT): Health and safety protocols robbed fans of seeing Young return to Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day, so this will be his first trip back since the playoff series last year that ended with him taking a bow at halfcourt. But by landing Kevin Durant in a trade deadline blockbuster, the Suns have the second-best odds of winning the NBA title. What's unclear is whether they can hit enough shots to truly take advantage of it. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. Atlanta Hawks (36) Theyve had key players miss time throughout the season and still managed to have the leagues best record at the break though theyve since fallen behind red-hot Milwaukee. Simmons didn't want to play for the Sixers anymore and will hear it from the Philadelphia crowd. Youll notice that the odds are listed like this: Lets pretend you believe that the Celtics are the team to beat based on the odds listed above. Caesars title odds: +100000 Ahead of todays Game 1 of the NBA Finals, lets get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. Players like Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Jarred Vanderbilt and Kelly Olynyk still project to perform fairly well and to play significant minutes. The Knicks came into the break having lost 13 of their last 16 games. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. Pivot point for the rest of the season: How will Harden fit? ET, ESPN): When Miami comes to town at the end of March, there will be less than two weeks to go in the regular season, making it a potentially massive game for seeding purposes for both teams. If youre hunting for long shots, theres plenty of interesting shuffling happening in the middle of the table. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Can the Raptors hold up? 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: It came about two hours before the Feb. 10 trade deadline, when the 76ers and Nets completed the Ben Simmons-James Harden swap. Giannis is leading the squad no surprise there but Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez have been excellent sidekicks. A teams full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The immediate impact rookie Evan Mobley made upon arrival in Cleveland is the biggest reason the Cavs have transformed into a contender. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.3%. If it doesn't, it will be very difficult for Brooklyn to reach its ultimate goal given Irving can only play in away games. Maybe the conventional wisdom is just stuck in the mid-to-late-2010s Warriors dynasty era. How quickly they can get on the floor, get up to speed and revive a struggling defense could make the difference. The Bulls entered the break on a five-game winning streak on the shoulders of a hot-shooting DeMar DeRozan. They got even deeper at the deadline acquiring stretch big Mike Muscala from the Oklahoma City Thunder. Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets. Web 2022-23 NBA Championship odds. While youre here, check out some of our other NBA betting sitesor unique basketball betting content like our popular first-quarter/first-half betting report or our analysis of which teams perform best on back-to-back days. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: The Heat won 11 of 14 games during a stretch from Dec. 21 to Jan. 19, and they did it almost entirely without Bam Adebayo -- who missed all but two games while recovering from thumb surgery. At the moment, Dallas is priced identically to Golden State and Memphis in both the Western Conference odds (+800) and the overall championship odds (+1600) markets. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. Ormaybe youre set on the Warriors. They also have to hope Rose can come back at a high level and stabilize New York's bench. And none of this was simply an artifact of schedule strength: According to Elo ratings, Golden States opponents were just 0.3 points per game better than Bostons in the regular season. A few weeks before the playoffs begin, it could also be Milwaukee's first chance to see Philadelphia with Harden in the lineup. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. For Dallas, Doni projects nearly as well on offense as does Joki, which is more than enough to carry a supporting cast full of players who project somewhere between minus-0.5 and plus-1.4 in total RAPTOR. Dallas Mavericks (34) Playoff and title projections: You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 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